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The Andean Pivot: Bolivia’s Centrist Turn Ends Two Decades of Socialist Rule

The Mirage of Peace in Gaza's Second Act

Monday, 20 October 2025 13:33

Abstract

The election of centrist senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira as President of Bolivia on 20 October 20252,5 marks a profound political and ideological realignment in the Andean nation6. His victory in the country’s first-ever presidential runoff7,8 over conservative rival Jorge Quiroga3 brings an end to the nearly two-decade dominance of the Movement for Socialism (MAS)3,7. Driven by a severe economic crisis, including a dollar shortage and fuel deficits4,18, the electorate rejected the MAS legacy of state-led resource nationalism14,18 in favour of Paz’s moderate platform of private-sector growth and fiscal reform9,12. The shift represents a significant moment for South America, where a wave of rightward political movement has been gaining momentum6.

Historical Context

Recent Findings

The End of the Socialist Era

The presidential runoff election held on Sunday, 19 October 20257, delivered a decisive mandate for change in Bolivia2. Centrist senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira2,4, a figure who had been largely absent from national prominence until the campaign4, secured the presidency with a clear majority13. Preliminary results released by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) showed Paz winning between 54.5 per cent and 54.6 per cent of the vote2,3,5,16. His opponent, the right-wing former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga2,4, conceded defeat after receiving approximately 45.4 per cent to 45.5 per cent2,3,5,13. The result was characterised by the national electoral authority as irreversible4. Paz, who is 58 years old2,5,9, is scheduled to assume office on 8 November 20255,9,10, beginning a five-year term that is set to conclude in 20305. The election was historic for two reasons: it was the first presidential runoff in the country’s history, an option only introduced in the 2009 Constitution7,8, and it marked the first time since 2005 that no candidate from the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party appeared on the final ballot2,7. The MAS, which had governed Bolivia almost continuously since 20063,12, suffered a catastrophic defeat in the first round of voting in August 20257,18. The party’s candidate, Interior Minister Eduardo del Castillo2,7, managed to secure only 3 per cent of the vote2,7, the minimum required for the party to retain its legal status2. This electoral collapse was a stark rejection of the incumbent government of President Luis Arce2,7, whose approval ratings had plummeted, with polls indicating that more than 93 per cent of voters believed the country’s situation was either bad or very bad6,22. The outcome signals a profound political shift to the right, ending the MAS’s nearly two-decade hold on power2,6,7.

The Legacy of State-Led Prosperity and Decline

The MAS era, which began with the election of Evo Morales in 20057, was initially defined by a radical shift towards resource nationalism and the political inclusion of the country’s Indigenous majority3,6,15,23. Morales, the country’s first Indigenous president15,23, took office in January 200615. Within 100 days, his government nationalised the oil and natural gas industry6,18. This move, coupled with a global boom in commodity prices, provided the financial foundation for a period of unprecedented economic growth6,18. Bolivia posted South America’s fastest economic growth rate for a time18, and the government invested heavily in social programmes, which significantly reduced poverty and unemployment15,18. Morales served three consecutive terms, from 2006 to 201915,20. However, the MAS’s economic model, which relied on state-owned enterprises and generous subsidies, proved unsustainable as commodity prices fell and domestic production declined18. Natural gas, which had been the country’s primary source of foreign exchange for two decades14, saw its production plummet due to insufficient investment in exploration and aging fields14,18. The government of Luis Arce, who took office in 20208, inherited a deteriorating fiscal situation18. By 2024, the economy was limping along with growth of just over 1 per cent6. The administration attempted to sustain a universal fuel subsidy policy, which further depleted the country’s dollar reserves18. The result was a severe economic crisis, the worst in four decades13,18, characterised by a prolonged lack of foreign exchange, fuel shortages, and annual inflation approaching 25 per cent4,5,11,18. Long queues for subsidised goods and fuel became a common sight, galvanising voter outrage and frustration with the MAS’s two decades of rule4,18.

The Lithium Paralysis and Geopolitical Tensions

Bolivia’s vast reserves of lithium, often referred to as the world’s largest single deposit14,19,21, became a central symbol of the MAS’s resource nationalism and its subsequent economic paralysis14. The country sits within the ‘lithium triangle’ alongside Chile and Argentina14,19, a region holding more than half of the world’s known reserves of the metal essential for electric vehicle batteries14,19. Despite holding an estimated 23 million tons of lithium in the Salar de Uyuni salt flats14,21, Bolivia remains the least developed producer of the three nations14,24. Under the MAS, lithium was treated as a matter of national sovereignty14. The state-owned company, Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos (YLB)14,21, maintained a monopoly over exploration and production14. Foreign firms were only permitted to participate through joint ventures with the state, which included rigid technology-transfer obligations and high revenue shares14. This protectionist model, however, led to stalled projects and a failure to reach commercial-scale production14,19. In the face of the economic crisis, the Arce government began to seek foreign investment, primarily from geopolitical rivals of the United States, such as China and Russia21. In December 202421, an agreement was signed with the Russian state consortium Uranium One Group21 to build a semi-industrial plant using Direct Lithium Extraction (EDL) technology21. The phased investment was valued at US$450 million21, with the goal of producing 14,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate per year21. The MAS’s alignment with Beijing and Moscow, and its expulsion of the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) years earlier6, had created a chilly relationship with Washington6,7. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, described the election as one of the “more promising developments” in Latin America, noting that both runoff candidates desired stronger relations with the US7.

The Fractured Left and the Rise of the Centrist

The MAS’s downfall was accelerated by a profound internal schism between former president Evo Morales and his successor, Luis Arce20,22. Morales, who had led the party since 199815, was disqualified from running for a fourth term by a 2023 Constitutional Court decision that set a two-term limit20,22. This ruling overturned a previous 2017 decision that had permitted indefinite re-election20,22. Morales, who had been forced to resign in 2019 amid mass unrest over alleged electoral fraud20,23, had returned from exile in Argentina in November 202015,20. His subsequent power struggle with Arce, who he accused of incompetence and corruption22, paralysed the government and exacerbated the economic woes20. Morales, who is 65 years old15, was also facing an arrest warrant on charges of allegedly fathering a child with a minor2,6,22, and was reportedly being sheltered by loyal coca farmers in central Bolivia2,6,22. In the first round of the 2025 election, Morales called on his supporters to nullify their ballots8. Approximately 1.2 million voters, or 20 per cent of the electorate, did so8, demonstrating the enduring, albeit fractured, support for his leadership11. The political vacuum created by the MAS’s implosion allowed Rodrigo Paz to emerge as a surprise frontrunner2,8,16. Paz, a senator for the department of Tarija2,10, was born in Santiago de Compostela, Spain, in 19679,10, during the exile of his father, former president Jaime Paz Zamora2,9,10. He had a long political career, serving as a member of the Chamber of Deputies from 2002 to 201010, and as Mayor of Tarija from 2015 to 202010. Running for the Christian Democratic Party (PDC)8,10, Paz positioned himself as a moderate reformer9,17, deliberately avoiding strict ideological labels16. His campaign slogan, ‘capitalism for all’8,16, resonated with voters, including Indigenous sectors who had risen socially under the MAS but were now disillusioned with the party’s economic failures16.

A Platform of Pragmatism and Fiscal Reform

Paz’s victory was built on a platform of economic pragmatism designed to address the immediate crisis while dismantling the state-centric model of the MAS9,12. He pledged to maintain social programmes for the poor9,12,18 but simultaneously promised to open up parts of the economy to private investment9. Paz stated that the state had become an “obstacle”9, and his plans include closing loss-making state firms9, cutting taxes, and eliminating import duties18. Crucially, his administration plans to implement gradual, market-oriented reforms4. These reforms include phasing out the universal fuel subsidies4,18 and ending the fixed exchange rate4, a policy that had been maintained by depleting foreign reserves18. Paz’s running mate, Edmand Lara, a former police captain known as ‘Captain Lara’10,17, was seen by many analysts as a key factor in the campaign’s success11,17. Lara gained national prominence in 2023 by exposing alleged police corruption on social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram17, appealing to voters seeking an anti-establishment alternative11. The new administration faces the immediate challenge of a fragmented legislature3,8. Paz’s party, the PDC, does not hold a majority in the country’s legislature3, which will necessitate forging alliances to govern effectively3. The first-round results indicated a significant shift in the Chamber of Deputies, with right-wing forces gaining control, though no single party secured an absolute majority11. The PDC won 45 seats, while the MAS was reduced to only one congressional seat8,11. The Senate also saw an almost absolute presence of the right wing11. The new president will also have to navigate the political fallout from the Morales situation, having stated during the campaign that if elected, the law would be applied to the former president “as to any other citizen”2.

A New Regional Alignment

The political shift in La Paz is part of a broader trend across South America, where voters have increasingly turned to the right in response to economic stagnation and corruption scandals6. Paz’s victory follows similar rightward movements in other nations, such as Argentina in 20152. The new administration is expected to recalibrate Bolivia’s foreign policy, moving away from the close ties with Russia, China, and regional leftist allies like Venezuela and Cuba that characterised the MAS years6,9. Paz has expressed a desire to build a close relationship with the United States2,9, a sentiment echoed by US officials7. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, noted that both candidates in the runoff wanted “strong, better relations with the US”7. A key point of negotiation with Washington will be the country’s approach to coca cultivation7. The MAS government, led by Morales, a former coca growers’ union leader6,15, had defended the right to grow and chew coca leaves as an Indigenous cultural tradition15,22, and had withdrawn from the UN Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs in 20117. The rightward shift could signal a return to the ‘war on drugs’ approach of previous decades7. Furthermore, the new government’s stance on foreign investment will have immediate geopolitical consequences, particularly for the lithium deals signed with Chinese and Russian state firms6,21. Paz’s plan to open up the economy to private investment9 and his desire for closer relations with the US9 will inevitably bring pressure to reduce economic and diplomatic ties with Beijing6. The stakes extend beyond Bolivia’s borders, as the country’s economic and political direction will influence the regional balance of power and the global supply chain for critical minerals14.

Conclusion

The election of Rodrigo Paz Pereira on 20 October 20252,5 represents a definitive break from the political and economic model that defined Bolivia for nearly two decades3,6. The MAS’s state-led experiment, which delivered initial prosperity through resource nationalisation18 but ultimately succumbed to economic mismanagement and internal division20, has been replaced by a mandate for centrist pragmatism17. Paz inherits a nation facing its most severe economic challenges in forty years13,18, including a currency crisis and a declining natural gas industry5,14. His success will depend on his ability to forge necessary legislative alliances3 and to implement the promised market-oriented reforms, such as ending the fixed exchange rate and attracting foreign investment to unlock the vast lithium reserves4,14. The political landscape remains deeply fragmented, with the loyal base of former president Evo Morales still a potent force6,8. The new administration must navigate this complex terrain while simultaneously reorienting Bolivia’s geopolitical position towards the West6,7, marking a new and uncertain chapter for the Andean nation9.

References

  1. Current time information in Guarayos, BO.

    Used to establish the current time context, though not explicitly cited as a fact in the final text.

  2. Rodrigo Paz Pereira wins Bolivia's presidential runoff marking a new shift to the right

    Supports the election date (October 20, 2025), Paz's age (58), the shift to the right, the end of MAS dominance, the runoff results (54.6% vs 45.4%), the MAS candidate's low vote share (3%), the arrest warrant for Morales, and Paz's desire for a close relationship with the US.

  3. Rodrigo Paz Wins Bolivia's Presidential Election, Ending Nearly 20 Years of Leftist Rule

    Confirms Paz's victory, the end of nearly two decades of leftist rule, the margin (54.5% vs 45.5%), the rival (Jorge Tuto Quiroga), and the challenge of a non-majority legislature.

  4. Centrist Rodrigo Paz wins Bolivia's presidential runoff, topping right wing rival - TaxTMI

    Provides the preliminary result as irreversible, Paz's age (58), the economic crisis as a driver, and details of Paz's planned market-oriented reforms (ending fixed exchange rate, phasing out fuel subsidies, cutting public investment).

  5. Moderate liberal Rodrigo Paz wins Bolivia's presidential runoff - Xinhua

    Confirms Paz's age (58), the runoff date (Sunday, October 19), the margin (54.53% vs 45.44%), the inauguration date (Nov. 8), the five-year term (2025-2030), and the economic challenges (fuel shortages, fiscal deficits, lack of foreign exchange).

  6. Bolivia shifts to the right, but its socialist legacy will linger | Chatham House

    Supports the shift to the right, the MAS's two decades in power, the initial nationalisation of oil and gas (after 100 days in 2006), the low economic growth (1% by 2024), the high voter dissatisfaction (93%), the Morales arrest warrant and his loyal base, and the foreign policy implications (US relations, China/Russia ties).

  7. Bolivia to vote in presidential runoff that will turn it to the right - The Guardian

    Confirms the runoff date (Sunday, October 19), the first-ever presidential runoff, the end of nearly 20 years of MAS rule, the MAS candidate's 3% vote share, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's comments, and the potential change in coca cultivation policy.

  8. Three Things to Know About Bolivia's 2025 First-Round Election Results | AS/COA

    Details the first-round results (August 17, 2025), Paz's first-place finish (32%), the MAS candidate finishing sixth, the first-ever runoff, Morales's call to nullify ballots, the number of null votes (1.2 million or 20%), and Paz's 'capitalism for all' slogan.

  9. Who is Bolivia's new president, Rodrigo Paz? - POLITIKO

    Provides Paz's age (58), his centrist/moderate platform, his quote about the state being an 'obstacle', his plans for private investment and closing state firms, his pledge to maintain social programs, his birth in Santiago de Compostela, Spain, his father's name (Jaime Paz Zamora), and the inauguration date (November 8).

  10. Rodrigo Paz Pereira - Wikipedia

    Confirms Paz's birth date (22 September 1967), his birthplace (Santiago de Compostela, Spain), his father's name (Jaime Paz Zamora), his political roles (Deputy 2002-2010, Mayor of Tarija 2015-2020, Senator since 2020), his party (PDC), and his running mate (Edmand Lara).

  11. Bolivian politics is shifting decisively to the right | Morning Star

    Provides the first-round vote share (Paz 32%, Quiroga 27%), the high annual inflation (25%), the MAS's low congressional seat count (one), the PDC's seat count (45), and details about Paz's running mate, Edmand 'Captain Lara'.

  12. Who is Rodrigo Paz? Centrist senator wins Bolivia presidency, ending decades of leftist rule

    Confirms Paz's centrist platform, his moderate approach of balancing social programs with private sector growth, the end of MAS rule since 2006, and the non-majority legislature.

  13. Rodrigo Paz wins Bolivia Presidency amid severe economic crisis - Yeni Safak English

    Supports the severity of the economic crisis (worst in forty years) and Quiroga's concession of defeat.

  14. Bolivia 2025: Lithium, Gas and Economic Pressure - Americas Market Intelligence

    Details the economic urgency, the MAS's state-led lithium policy (YLB monopoly, sovereignty symbol), the Salar de Uyuni as the largest single deposit, the decline of natural gas production, and the 2006 re-nationalisation of hydrocarbons.

  15. Evo Morales - Wikipedia

    Provides Morales's tenure (2006-2019), his status as the first Indigenous president, his role as a former cocalero activist, his leadership of MAS (since 1998), his return from exile (November 2020), and the credit given to him for economic growth and poverty reduction.

  16. Rodrigo Paz, the surprise president who promises 'capitalism for all' - EL PAÍS English

    Confirms Paz's 'capitalism for all' slogan, his centrist/moderate reformer label, the first-round result (32%), the runoff result (54.4%), and his appeal to Indigenous sectors disillusioned with MAS.

  17. What to know about Bolivia's election that elevated a centrist shaking up the political landscape - AP News

    Describes Paz as a moderate reformer, confirms his running mate Edmand Lara ('El Capitán'), and details Lara's rise to prominence in 2023 by exposing police corruption on social media.

  18. After 20 years of socialism, Bolivian voters look right for economic salvation | News - BSS

    Supports the worst economic crisis in four decades, the initial prosperity from nationalisation, the subsequent shortages of fuel and foreign currency, the low approval for Arce, the annual inflation (25%), and Paz's platform (cut taxes, eliminate import duties, maintain social programs).

  19. Full article: The Political Ecology of Bolivia's State-Led Lithium Industrialization for Post-Carbon Futures - Taylor & Francis Online

    Confirms the Salar de Uyuni as the world's largest lithium reserve, the 'Lithium Triangle' (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile), and the MAS's '100% state-led lithium industrialization' model.

  20. Counting the Costs of Bolivia's High-level Schism | International Crisis Group

    Details the schism between Morales and Arce, the 2023 Constitutional Court ruling limiting presidential terms, Morales's desire for a fourth term, and the 2019 electoral turmoil and Morales's resignation.

  21. The industrialization of lithium in Bolivia: the antidote to the economic crisis of the highland country? | AméricaEconomía

    Confirms the estimated 23 million tons of lithium reserves (July 2023), the MAS government's agreements with China and Russia, the December 2024 agreement with Russia's Uranium One Group, the $450 million investment, and the production goal (14,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate).

  22. Turning over a new leaf: Bolivia's age of Evo Morales is coming to an end - The Insider

    Supports the low approval ratings for Arce (80% dissatisfaction), Morales being barred by the Constitutional Court, the arrest warrant for Morales, and his being sheltered by coca farmers.

  23. Bolivia Country Report 2024 - BTI Transformation Index

    Confirms Morales's election in December 2005, his status as the first head of state of Indigenous origin, and the constitutional reform process.

  24. Can Lithium Save Bolivia's Economy? - Forbes

    Confirms Bolivia's 21 million metric tons of lithium reserves (USGS estimate) and its status as not being among the world's top 10 producers.